There is a cycle for everything. That truism of life, intuited at least as far back as the Book of Ecclesiastes, is also important to understanding how values fluctuate, be it for Yeezy sneakers, condos in that trendy neighborhood in your nearest downtown—or your favorite collector car. If values are down, safe to say they’ll go up. If they’re up, they’ll eventually come down.
Knowing when they’ll go up or down, of course, is another question entirely, and the answers can vary. In 1989, the Ferrari market imploded and took a staggering 19 years to recover. Yet other cars seem able to bounce back from a dip in much less time—remember the chatter about 2016 Porsche 911 R values declining? Well, they’re higher than ever now.
With many collector cars selling at or near record prices, we decided now was as good a time as any to take a deeper look at how long we can expect to wait for values to cycle.
First, it’s helpful to think about what causes these cycles. Every year, some enthusiasts enter car collecting, while others leave. New vehicles become collectible. Events where people enjoy those vehicles come and go. There’s old-fashioned supply-and-demand: A few exceptional examples of a particular vehicle sell for incredible prices, which draws more (and possibly less nice) examples to market. And, of course, there are factors outside the buying-and-selling of old cars that have an impact. All these inputs—and many, many more—cause transaction prices to shift over time. The Hagerty Price Guide helps us keep track of changing values, and that allows us to observe these individual cycles over time. Read on from Hagerty: hagerty.com
